We began this Gold Commentary in January 1996.
Due to many requests, we began to archive them in May 2000.
December 31 - 2002 - The "Palindrome" Year
"When it comes to calendar years, you don't get "palindrome years" very often. The last one was only eleven years ago, in 1991. But the one before that was over a century ago, in 1881."
December 21 - It Has Been A LONG Year
"Remember back in January when the Fed began to cut rates? The rate cuts were then "sure" to cut in in the second quarter. Then it was the third quarter. Then it was the fourth quarter. Now, after eleven rate cuts which have seen the Fed Funds rate descend from 6.50% to 1.75%, the "stimulus" is going to be felt in the second quarter of 2002."
December 14 - A Golden Christmas Present?
"WHY is the U.S. "urging" Japan to buy Treasuries? Because they can't get the Europeans to do so. Can Japan buy enough Treasuries to stave off a dive in the Dollar, and keep U.S. longer-term rates comparatively under control? They might be able to, for a while, in 'normal' circumstances."
December 7 - Do You Feel Protected?
"... you have been reassured by your government ad nauseum that they are doing everything they can to 'protect' you. There is this difference post 9/11 though. Before that date, you were being assured that your financial future was 'safe'. Since 9/11, you are being assured that your PHYSICAL future is 'safe'."
November 30 - Should Old Acquaintance Be Forgot?
"The old acquaintance between Gold and what circulates as money is something that MOST Central Bankers want to extinguish utterly."
November 23 - Let Us Give Thanks
"Yes, we know it didn't trade due to the Thanksgiving holiday for part of the week, but the lack of movement even when it DID trade is almost uncanny. Gold has stopped dead - at or about its pre 9/11 level and right at technical support."
November 16 - A Tale Of Safe Havens
"The signal feature of world financial markets this week, a feature which many noticed but surprisingly few have commented upon, was the global ROUT of government bonds. This rout was most noticeable on the market for U.S. Treasury debt paper."
November 9 - The Broken Record
"That's as good a description as any of the progression of the $US Gold price over the past month. Gold trades quietly at or slightly above the $US 280 level."
November 2 - Going Up - Going Down - Or Going Nowhere?
"Gold "SHOULD" be going up. It ISN'T going up. WHY THE HELL NOT! ...Of course, Gold "should" be going up. There are any number of reasons why it should be going up. Here are just a few of them"
October 26 - A Plea For "Financial Literacy"
"Apparently, Mr Greenspan would like all Americans, young and old alike, to understand such basic financial concepts as BUDGETING and SAVING. What a very good idea, I wonder why nobody thought of that before."
October 19 - Patience Is A Virtue - Sometimes
"Gold, and patience, are all that is required. Gold is easy to get, patience is perhaps not so easily acquired. But it is inded a virtue, and seldom as needed as it is at present."
October 12 - Everything Old Is New Again
"Properly understood, "empire building", or for that matter the maintenance of an empire, has no future. Not if such concepts as individual rights and political liberty are destined to be any more than words in a dictionary."
October 5 - Losing Interest In Interest Rates
"As Privateer Subscribers know we reported on it in our latest issue, the Fed Funds TARGET rate of 2.50% has become all but meaningless, since the Fed has been shoving funds into the U.S. banking system at rates well below 1.00% since September 11."
September 28 - A Financial Protection Racket
"This is the modern financial 'protection racket'. Governments are making it as hard as they possibly can for anyone to protect THEMSELVES against a collapse of the financial system which governments control."
September 21 - PANIC SEEN - PANIC NOT (YET) SEEN
"The minor "panic" is being illustrated by the huge dive in global stock markets this week. The major PANIC is being illustrated by the actions of financial regulators around the world, and ESPECIALLY in the U.S.."
September 14 - LIBERTY - OBITUARY OR REBIRTH?
"The threat of a terrorist attack on the United States has been ever-present for decades. It has now happened. The President of the United States, with almost (1 dissenter in the House, none in the Senate) unanimous consent, has now taken COMPLETE control of EVERY aspect of the daily life of every American citizen.
To use Mr Bush's own words: "Freedom has been attacked!"
September 7 - A Parable Of Disappointed Expectations
"Ever since the Nasdaq topped last year, Gold has provided a better means of preserving wealth than has almost any stock market anywhere in the world."
August 31 - The End Of The Northern Summer
"Right now, the $US Gold price continues to consolidate. But in the weeks to come, things can't get too much worse without the $US Gold price getting a whole lot better."
August 24 - The Debt SUPER Saturation Point
"It is a well-known fact (well, maybe it isn't - BUT IT SHOULD BE) that the only "class" of debtor which can conjure up the means with which to repay out of thin air is a government. "Private" debtors are not allowed to "print" or otherwise manufacture Dollars with which to service or repay debt."
August 17 - The "Calm" Before The Storm?
"The U.S. can certainly live with a lower Dollar, although Mr O'Neill may end up looking a bit silly. The problem is - CAN THE REST OF THE WORLD LIVE WITH A LOWER U.S. DOLLAR?"
August 10 - Put Not Your Faith In Princes
"We all have a choice. We can "believe in Princes" (nowadays known as "public servants") or we can stop believing and start THINKING. An adage we use here at The Privateer is this: 'If it makes no sense - IT'S NONSENSE!'"
August 3 - Tuesday US Data Could Spark Sell Off
"If Gold was going to be hammered back towards its ulitmate support levels around the low $US 250s, it would almost certainly have happened by now. If the facade of U.S. economic "growth" is about to be ripped aside, then Gold has literally nowhere to go but up"
July 27 - The State Of Play
"The Gold situation is 'safe' with TWO strong support areas within $US 10 of the present spot future Gold price. It is also 'primed' for an upside move, with Gold open interest at levels not seen for more than eight years."
July 20 - Remember The "Washington Agreement"?
"Here is the actual statement made by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Sunday,
September 26, 1999 (Source - Reuters):"
July 13 - Truth Can Be MUCH Stranger Than Fiction
"TREASURY BONDS are the ultimate "glue" which holds the present world financial system together. But Mr O'Neill has just dropped a megaton bombshell. He has said, in public, that they are not "REAL ASSETS"!"
July 6 - A "Hissing" In The Dollar Bubble?
"The Bush Administration WANTS a strong Dollar. The Bush Administration GETS a strong Dollar. And, of course, they also get a "weak" $US Gold price"
June 29 - The "Advantages" Of A RESERVE Currency
"Last year, the NET external debt of the United States increased by 44.1%. Don't forget, the U.S. has been building its NET external debt position for SIXTEEN years, and this increase took place over ONE year."
June 22 - Countdown To Rate Cut
"Yes, the whole world's watching Mr Greenspan and his Fed colleagues, as the FOMC prepares to announce its decision... And lurking behind this fixation with "numbers" comes the REAL question on everybody's mind: "Will THIS cut fix it?"
June 15 - The Fed Says There Is NO Inflation
"One would think that grown men and women would not be quite so gullible. But they clearly are. Having watched the Fed shovel money at them hand over fist for YEARS, they are still ready willing and able to be told that there ain't no 'inflation'."
June 8 - Deja Vu - Or - One More Time
"The 1999 and 2000 spurts came at the BEGINNING of what has proved to be a two year "bottom formation" in $US Gold. These spurts come at what is looking more and more like the END of that bottom formation."
June 1 - One - Two - Three - SHORT
"The great run up of open interest was, of course, on the SHORT side. The great "run down" in the open interest climaxed on May 31, when open interest collapsed by just over 18000 contracts - and the shorts took their profits."
May 25 - Action You Wanted - Action You GOT
"It may well be exasperating to witness the lemming-like rush out of Gold caused by the "quote" from Mr Putin (see the report below). Some people will swallow ANYTHING, you may well say."
May 18 - WHA' HAPPEND HERE??
"Where will Gold start to "correct". No way of knowing that, but the major resistance line is obviously the $US 300 level"
May 11 - May 15: 20 Tonnes and 0.50%?
"The 0.50% refers, of course, to what everyone expects to be pared off the Fed Funds Rate when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on May 15. The 20 Tonnes is the amount of Gold which the Bank of England is going to auction on the same day."
May 4 - "Psychology" or "Psychosis" - You Be The Judge.
"For a few days, some unbelievers were starting to question Mr Greenspan's omnipotent interest rate policy. But on May 4, these pagans were firmly put back in their place."
April 27 - A Wake Up Call For Gold
"In essence, with the exception of the five-month run up in 1993, Gold has been in a bear market ever since the last time it hit $US 500, and that was in December 1987."
April 20 - The Act Of Renouncing A Mind
"With the Fed now having demonstrably PANICKED, it is past time to ACT (if you haven't already done so) to protect yourself from Mr Greenspan."
April 12 - Easter Gold (Friday, April 13 was "Good Friday")
"The Fed is hell bent on restarting economic "growth" - through borrowing of course. The ECB, by their lack of action on rates, is coming down on the other side of the aisle."
April 6 - Weak Markets - Weak Dollar - What's Left?
"For all those who continue to look at (physical) Gold as a "bad" investment, consider this. So far this year, the Dow is down 9.3%, the S&P 500 is down 14.6%, and the Nasdaq is down 30.4%. That's despite the big one day market boom on April 5. Gold in $US terms is down 5.0%."
March 30 - The Strong Dollar Policy
"It seems amazing now, but it is true that at the start of the year, there was widespread and global trepidation over whether the new Bush Administration would continue with their predecessor's 'strong
Dollar policy'"
March 23 - Dow 10000 - Gold $US 300: The Dow "Wins"!
"Barring a "miracle", the Dow has "won". The Dow broke below the 10000 level before Gold could break above the $US 300 level."
March 16 - If This Keeps Up - Somebody Might Notice - Part II
"Gold has fallen further against the U.S. Dollar than the Dollar has risen against all its trading partners this week, but not much further. Everyone is rushing into Dollars."
March 9 - If This Keeps Up - Somebody Might Notice!
"It will take a $US Gold price of more than $US 300 before the public takes any notice at all. It will also take a price of more than $US 300 before a GENIUNE Gold bull market in U.S. Dollar terms can be established."
March 2 - The Double Standard
"Yes, we know it's predictable. Yes, we know it's wearing. Yes, we know that once again, it seems to have "worked". But we are not at all sure that it is going to go on working for very much longer."
Feb 23 - "An 'Angell' Of Mercy"
"That was when the "Angell" of Mercy appeared, in the form of Mr Wayne Angell, a former Fed Governor. Mr "Angell" said that he wouldn't be at all surprised if the Fed decided on another 0.5% rate cut - NEXT WEEK! The next FOMC meeting is not until March 20, almost a month away."
Feb 16 - The Last "(Yes We Have No) Inflation Indicator"
"If Gold is NOT going to emerge as a possible source of diversification away from the REALLY risky investments, it had better plummet in price SOON. If it doesn't, it's lure is going to grow inexorably"
Feb 9 - Gold Does Matter - Just Ask Newsweek
"'Only when countries left gold (Britain in 1931, the United States in 1933 and France in 1936) did the Depression begin to abate. Highly simplified, this is the scholarly explanation of the Depression.
(Robert Samuelson - Newsweek - Feb. 12 issue)'"
Feb 2 - Defending The Dollar - At All Costs
"There should be absolutely NO doubt in the mind of anyone reading this commentary that if any OTHER Central Bank had cut rates to the extent that the Fed has so far this year, the currency of that nation's Central Bank would have gone DOWN."
Jan 26 - Coming Up - Two Rate Cuts In A Month?
"But what no-one knows yet is whether or not the U.S. is now facing a 'Japan situation' and whether or not the Fed is 'pushing on a string'."
Jan 19 - A New President - Another Rate Cut?
"Suffice it to say here that the biggest questions to be answered in the early days of the Bush Administration are these: Will a series of U.S. rate cuts "work" this time, just as it has always "worked" before?"
Jan 12 - As January Goes, So Goes The Year?
"Over the first two weeks of January, Gold is down 3.29% in U.S. Dollar terms. It's down quite a bit more than that in terms of most other currencies."
Jan 5 - All Hands To The Pumps!
"Mr Greenspan has been INFLATING almost non-stop for more than a decade. He probably never thought he would see a situation in which he was "pushing on a string". He is now seeing it."