We began this Gold Commentary in January 1996.
Due to many requests, we began to archive them in May 2000.
December 31 - "A New Year's Resolution?"
"It may be, and in many cases probably is, the case that the US monetary and political powers that be would indeed like a lower Dollar. What they would NOT like is the consequences of a lower Dollar."
December 24 - Christmas Eve, no commentary
December 17 - "So Far, So Good?"
"'So far, so good!!' - the chorus is still coming - from Washington, from Wall Street, and from Main Street too. That's the way it always works, the biggest collapses are those which are least anticipated. Do we know WHEN the looming collapse will come? No, we don't. What we DO know is that it is coming."
December 10 - "It Got Too Close For Comfort"
"To go from a commodity currency (with precious metal backing, however flawed) system to a fiat currency system is simple. To reverse the process is anything but simple. It has been done, with great strain at great cost, before in history on a one nation basis."
December 3 - "These 'Confounded' Markets"
"It is the slowly growing realisation that this is so which is "confounding" the markets at present as everyone tries to "hedge" against a risk which is not going to go away, which is growing, and which ultimately cannot be hedged against."
November 26 - "The US Dollar - Gold Balance"
"So far this year, Gold has gained a mere 7.98%. As recently as October 18, not much more than a month ago, $US Gold had not gained at all on its level at the start of 2004."
November 19 - "Reality Is Catching Up"
"If this were a poker game, Mr Snow would be embarrasingly tabling a very busted flush in the face of his opponent's four aces. Sadly, in many respects, the simile is apt. The US in general and the Treasury in particular have been "bluffing" with a busted hand for decades."
November 12 - "Gold Has Work To Do - Part II"
"The 100 years preceding 1914 was the century in which Gold progressively took over as the world's universal money. The ninety years after 1914 have been the years when Gold has been steadily and then completely barred from ANY functioning role in financial affairs."
November 5 - "Gold Has Work To Do"
"As he did on so many occasions speaking about so many different subjects, Benjamin Franklin said it best: 'They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.'"
October 29 - "Unexpected 'October Surprises'"
"Well, well. Who would have though even a couple of weeks ago that $US Gold would actually set new 2004 (and bull market) highs in the last full week of trading before the US elections. Yet so it has."
October 22 - "Cutting Through The Noise"
"The potential tragedy (yes, tragedy) of a Bush victory on November 2 lies simply in the fact that it would convey to the rest of the world (and to millions of clear-eyed and honourable Americans too) the message that the American PEOPLE approve of his actions. What other message could be conveyed?"
October 15 - "Are You READY Yet?"
"There is no necessity for Gold to repeat this pattern this year, of course, although it has repeated the rest of the patterns set in 2002 and 2003 with eerie precision. One, amongst many, of the reasons for this is that in both 2002 and 2003, the US Congress got all in a tangle over a political bunfight around raising the Treasury's debt ceiling."
October 8 - "It's Playing Out A Lot Like 2003 - and 2002"
"Will 2004 be a replay for Gold of 2002 and 2003? We don't know. What we do know is that everything is set up for it. If it does happen and it follows the events of 2002 and 2003 it will happen in November and December."
October 1 - "$US Gold Up Four Years In A Row?"
"First things first: At its spot future close of $US 419.50 on October 1, Gold is at its highest level since April 12 - when it closed at $US 420.10. It is also the first time that Gold has been in the 'black' in $US terms since April 12"
September 24 - "A Tale Of Two Markets"
"In financial markets which trade in paper instruments, ALL paper instruments, the concept of "risk" is looked upon as an historical oddity. Risk is something which used to have a bearing on decision makers in the old days before everything could be hedged against everything else."
September 17 - "Another 31 Days On Hold?"
"Like we said, the markets have been 'on hold' since Labor Day. Clearly, if they can't generate the attitude necessary to make them go up, the 'powers that be' will settle for them remaining static until the people have voted and things get back to 'normal'."
September 10 - "There Are Things Which Can't Be Paid For"
"It should by now be abundantly clear that the global financial system as it is presently constituted is not "fixable". It is terminally broken. The only fundamental choice is to scrap it. It is not necessary to discover a "new" system, it is merely necessary to re-discover - and re-implement - one which works and which has been proven to work."
September 3 - "You CAN Fool Some Of The People All Of The Time"
"It is not just "the movers and shakers of the US financial system" (see the quote above) who are talking as if nothing has changed. US politicians, of both parties, are talking as if the last four years (with the exception of what did happen on September 11, 2001) never happened."
August 27 - "'On The Manipulation Of Money And Credit' - (And Gold Too)"
"Although modern (post Keynes) economic theories - with the honourable exception of the Austrian School - differ on many points of detail, they all take for granted the starting point that government intervention is "beneficial" to the economy."
August 20 - "Almost Back To The Start - Halfway Back To The Highs"
"At the beginning of 2004, spot future Gold stood at $US 416.10. On August 20, it closed up $US 6.10 to $US 413.20. This is the closest Gold has got to being back in the "black" for the year since the last time it WAS in the black for the year."
August 13 - "Hanging On By Teeth And Toenails"
"The movers and shakers of the US financial system are talking as if nothing had changed from the heady bubble years of the late 1990s. Once the Republican Convention is over in early September, their political counterparts are set to paint a picture of the United States which will strain the bounds of credulity to hieghts seldom if ever reached in US history."
August 6 - "Changing The Definition To Suit"
"Mr Bush is attempting to re-define" his "war on terror". It will be highly educational in coming weeks and months to watch Mr Greenspan and his cohorts in the Fed re-define almost every ephemeral "concept" which they have introduced over the past few years in an increasingly desperate attempt to deny the evidence of everyone's eyes."
July 30 - "Thumb Twiddling Time"
"Now here's the amusing part. It is of course true that Mr Greenspan knew all about the "soft" data to be released on July 30 when he gave his two days of testimony to Congress last week. It is equally true that he knows that his credibility rests on the resumption of more "robust" data in the third quarter, the quarter which is already one month old."
July 23 - "So You Thought The 9/11 Commission Was A Whitewash?"
"There is the real world, and then there is the world portrayed by the 9/11 Commission whose report was released this week, and then there is the world portrayed by Mr Alan Greenspan who spent two days this week (July 20-21) testifying to Congress about the state of the US economy."
July 16 - "All The News That's Fit To Print"
"Well, as far as the markets are concerned, the NYT is becoming disgruntled, calling these markets (not only US markets but all the world markets) "the dullest in years". Looking at the raw figures, it is easy to agree."
July 9 - "Three Out Of Four Ain't Bad"
"That streak was broken last week - June 28 - July 2 - with Gold's $US 8.50 fall on June 29. Of course, it was merely a coincidence that June 29 was the first day of the two-day FOMC meeting and the day before the Fed made the most telegraphed interest rate hike in their history."
July 2 - "Now What?"
"Leaving aside the obligatory Gold "hit" (Comex spot future Gold fell $US 8.50 on June 29), the "knee jerk" reaction towards a higher US Dollar has not happened at all - at least not so far."
June 25 - "The End Of An Era - And - HEEERE's $US 400"
"As the US financial system lurches towards the "end of an era" with the first interest rate INCREASE by the Fed since May 2000 when the FOMC meets next Tuesday/Wednesday, Gold is doing precisely what it could be expected to do, it is anticipating higher US rates by going UP."
June 18 - "Dangerous Driving - From The Back Seat To The Front Seat"
"It is when times are not so "good" that the arsenal of interventionist weapons is dipped into, and the worse times get, the bigger the calibre of the weapon employed. The first step is to drag down interest rates (a la 2001)."
June 11 - "Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad 0.25%?"
"Many commentators and financial analysts all over the world are now asking the same question: Is what the Bank of England has done over the past eight months a "portent" of what the Fed might have to do once they start raising US rates"
June 4 - "Marching Towards The Limits"
"We are, all of us, living in a financial 'fools paradise'. For those of us who are not fools, it is not a very pleasant place to be. The mouthings about 'economic growth' and 'robust economies' is farcical. The Emperor has been naked for so long that the sight and sound of him has lost any of the 'novelty' value it might have had in the distant past."
May 28 - "One Month - And Counting?"
"That, in current circumsances, is a LONG time to wait. Even if the Fed does raise rates at the end of June, it will not raise them anywhere near enough. The last time that the US government was running deficits anywhere close to as big as they are now was in 1990-91. Back then, the Fed Funds rate fluctuated between 6.50% and 8.25%"
May 21 - "Another Correction Finds Support"
"BUT - as long as the trendlines hold, and they are holding nicely, Gold is STILL in a bull market in US Dollar terms. What we have with the upmove this week is simply the first SOLID evidence that the current correction has found support."
May 14 - "The Investment 'Star' Of 2004 - The US Dollar?!!?"
"The repression of Gold has now reached the stage where the US government has - wittingly or unwittingly - put at risk the markets for their life blood - their debt paper"
May 7 - "One Little Quote From The Privateer"
"Why is it NOT surprising that the US Dollar is rising in the face of abysmal investment performance all over the world, not least in the US markets themselves? The simple answer is 'deleveraging'."
April 30 - "Dammit - EVERYTHING'S Going Down"
"Gold is down. Silver is down. Base Metals are down. Commodities of (almost) all varieties are down. Stocks are down. Bonds are down (and yields are up). Even the US Dollar is down (91.36 to 90.68 on the $US index over the week of April 26-30)."
April 23 - "Everything But The Kitchen Sink"
"Open interest is down on the Comex by about 20% in two weeks. NMRothschilds has foresaken the paper Gold market in London. Silver has been decimated, falling more than 20% (over $US 2.00). The French have reported to be considering selling gold - Sacre Bleu! London's Financial Times have come out with a editorial sneering at Gold."
April 16 - "Methinks Thou Dost Protest Too Much"
"Today, there is a British establishment newspaper of long and distinguished standing called the Financial Times (FT). On Friday, April 16, the FT published an article without a byline (no author was indicated) titled Going, Going, Gold"
April 9 - "The Calm Before The Storm?"
"The financial situation is on hold, for as long as it can be kept on hold. As long as Gold is contained, as long as the stock markets hover at "safe" levels, and as long as the US Dollar remains above its recent lows, especially against the Euro, for that long the facade of business as usual can be maintained."
April 2 - "Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics, And Desperate Measures"
"But the propagandists are losing their battle in the financial arena just as they have already lost it in the foreign policy arena. It has always been true that one cannot live a lie, but the process of ridding oneself of one, when expanded to fill a nation or even a world, is an explosive one."
March 26 - "Gold Against The Reserve Currencies"
"The next step is to see how Gold is doing in terms of the world's two KEY currencies. These two key currencies are the US Dollar and the Euro. Both of these are, by their structure, RESERVE currencies."
March 19 - "The REAL Gold Bull Market?"
"But as long as NO present world currency has any official tie to Gold, as long as there is no such thing as a currency REDEEMABLE in Gold, ALL world currencies are suspect. When this state of affairs dawns on enough people, Gold starts rising in terms of ALL currencies."
March 12 - "Back Below '400' In US Dollar Terms - BUT ..."
"The stakes are HUGE. Gold is being repeatedly "put back in its box" in $US terms by slipping below the $US 400 level. The BIG feature of the $US rebound of the past month, however, has been a strengthening of Gold in terms of all other major currencies."
March 5 - "Thunder And Lightning And Wind And Rain And Floods And Stuff"
"One very interesting feature of the past couple of weeks is that we have re-acquainted ourselves with getting the "news" from the mass print and tv/radio media. SHUDDER!! No wonder so many people are so uninformed/misinformed about the situation out there in financial land."
February 27 - No update due to local storms and power and phone outages.
February 20 - "The Japanese Have Every Right To Be 'Terrified'"
"The Japanese have indeed learned from watching the adventures of the Bush Administration in the US. Why bother with having "reasons" for invoking a terrorist alert? The Bush Administration has been having rolling terrorist alerts ever since 9/11."
February 13 - "The Plot Thickens"
"Given the one-two-three (trade deficit, consumer confidence, import prices) punch which hit early in the day, this big US Dollar turnaround looks close to miraculous. That is, until one notices that after all the bad news was out, the Euro suddenly fell more than one US cent as a "big European bank" sold 2 Billion Euros for $US."
February 6 - "From The G-10 in Basel To The G-7 in Boca Raton"
"The answer to all these questions is the same. It cannot be done. When talking about MONEY, 'stability' and 'flexiblity' don't mix. When the great scientist Isaac Newton became Master of the Mint in Britain in 1717, he FIXED the British currency at a given and known weight of Gold. When asked why he had done this, he answered: 'Gentlemen, in order to calculate, YOU MUST DEFINE YOUR UNIT.'"
January 30 - "Currency Doubts Slug Gold"
"It is an undisputed fact that Comex Gold fell $US 16.10 (Silver was down $US 0.40) on Thursday, January 29, the day after that "momentous" Fed rewording of their boilerplate press release. That having happened, it behooves everyone to try and figure out WHY Gold fell out of bed"
January 23 - "G10 - State Of The Union - FOMC - G7"
"By the beginning of this year, with the Dollar slide accelerating, global financial analysts attained virtual unanimity that it was time for the world's Central Banks to get together and DO SOMETHING! Then came the first break at the G-10 meeting when the rumours started that Europe might join with Japan to intervene."
January 16 - "G10 - State Of The Union - FOMC - G7"
"The first, the G-10 meeting, has already taken place. The second is Mr Bush's State of the Union Address on January 20. The third is the Fed's first FOMC meeting of the year on January 27-28. And the fourth is the G-7 meeting which will take place in Florida on February 7."
January 9 - "The Debate About The NATURE Of Money"
"We are in a situation in which the lynchpin of the global monetary system, the US Dollar, is becoming a clear and present danger to the financial health of the world. Gold AND Silver are signalling a growing realisation of this situation."
January 2 - "The Legacy Of 2003"
"At the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2004, Treasury debt is up by $US 218.1 Billion, according to the official figures. According to those same official figures, $US 86.1 Billion or 39.5% of that debt was incurred in ONE DAY - on December 31, 2003."