"In his push for war against Iraq, one of President Bush's most important weapons has been his ability to create an air of inevitability around military action."
(Alan Elsner - Reuters National Correspondent - February 27)
This is true, as a cursory glance at the rhetoric coming from not only Mr Bush, but from almost every member of his Administration would illustrate. We say "almost" every member only because Secretary of State Powell did, for a while, attempt to pour some cold water on his more vehement colleagues, including Mr Bush. Mr Powell has since given up on that job.
The Bush Administration wants a war. The rest of the world does not. Even inside the US, the majority of Americans do NOT want a unilateral US war with Iraq, one fought outside the "auspices" of the United Nations. This week, the Russian Foreign Minister, who was on a visit to Beijing, announced that Russia WOULD veto the US resolution "if necessary". With that, it becomes all but inevitable that if (when) the US goes to war with Iraq, they will NOT have UN "approval".
Mr Bush has long stated that the US would go to war with Iraq with or WITHOUT UN approval. As the world's sole "superpower", the US doesn't need anybody's "approval". In fact, the whole thrust of the Bush Administration, up to and including the MASSIVE troop buildup on Iraq's borders, is that they will have their war - NO MATTER WHAT!
"We have a very durable economy. We've been through two world wars; we've been through a depression; we've been through nine recessions and so our economy can handle and manage whatever it costs to win this war."
(Donald Evans - US Commerce Secretary - February 25)
"Brave" words, but Mr Evans is speaking with his eyes tight shut to both history and especially to the present economic and financial state of the US in general and of the government which he represents in particular. Again, the implication is that it is all inevitabile. No matter what the cost, no matter what the damage done to the reputation of the US in the rest of the world, no matter how big US budget and trade deficits get, and no matter how intense the pressure on the US Dollar becomes, the US economy, like the US military, will prevail.
This drumbeat of "inevitability" pervades almost every utterance of high US government officials. It is impossible to ignore. It is difficult to argue with simply because it is unceasing. It is calculated to engender an attitude that "resistance is useless" amongst those who can see through it and to keep up the "morale" of those who can't or won't see through it.
"We'll go to war. We'll win. We'll turn the entire Middle East into freedom-loving democratic people. And then we'll go home. Just like we always have before." That was the gist of Mr Bush's speech to the American Enterprise Institute this week. Do the names "Noriega", "Chavez", "Marcos", and yes, "Saddam Hussein" come to mind? All these democratic freedom-loving individuals, and many more, were put in place by the United States. As the old State Department litany goes: "He may be a bastard, but he's OUR bastard". And as for "going home", there are still US troops on the ground all over the world, with WWII having been over for almost 60 years and with the USSR having collapsed more than a decade ago.
While the pressure AGAINST the Iraq war grows daily stronger, both outside and INSIDE the US, the broken record is played over and over again. The Bush Administration has put themselves in a position where there is no way out. To maintain any shred of credibility, they MUST go to war, no matter what the consequences.
There are many other things that the Bush Administration must do. They must maintain the market for their Treasury debt paper, no matter what the consequences. They must maintain a "strong" US Dollar, no matter what the consequences. They must prevent another death spiral on their stock markets, no matter what the consequences. And they must control the Gold price, no matter what the consequences.
If you have found yourself succumbing to the attitude that Gold can NEVER rise because the financial powers that be will ALWAYS find a way to push it back down. If you have found it hard to shake off the attitude that a "low" Gold price is "inevitable", we caution you to think again. The consequences of a rapid rise in the Gold "price" have always been the destruction of the currency against which Gold was rising. It almost happened to the US two decades ago. The US political establishment is determined to prevent it from happening again. Gold is indeed a POLITICAL metal, please don't ever forget it.
For the moment, Gold is "back in the box". US markets are not falling - or rising much. The $US is moving sideways just below the 100 mark on the $US Index. Treasury yields are slowly falling. Treasury Secretary Snow is peddling the same old line that a renewal of global economic "growth" is just around the corner with the US as the main engine of same. The same old and tired noises are being made by market analysts, financial journalists, and economists alike. It's all "inevitable". Everything is under control.
Almost every powerful nation when on or nearing the brink of a serious collapse - Rome in the fourth century AD, Spain in the late 16th century, Napoleon's France in 1814/15, Britain on the eve of WWI, the USSR in the late 1980s - has fostered the belief that their continued strength and power was "inevitable". It is the last resort of those who wish to strangle debate, constructive criticism, or the advocacy of alternative courses of action. This is a familiar and oppressive political disease to any student of history. Now, tragically, the Bush Administration has cought a virulent dose of it.
Almost all world markets are "on hold" right now as the world marches up to the brink of the precipice. We would not be surprised if the US/Iraq war starts before the next "installment" of this commentary a week from now. We would be very surprised, and gratified, if the Bush Administration decides to "blink". The only certainty is that the US and the world is in for a long and drawn out period of economic malaise (at the very best) before the huge financial imbalances built up over the past decade can be put right. The only other certainty is that if the US does go to war in Iraq, that malaise will be much more drawn out, much deeper, and has the potential become a full blown global financial crisis of MASSIVE proportions.
These are the only inevitabilities. As one would expect, they are the exact OPPOSITE of the one's which the Bush Administration has been pushing so hard.